3.3. Sales Forecast & Turnover Planning
3.3.1. Supply and sales forecast
Sales forecast and sales curve
The sales forecast must develop an idea of how the possible course of sales (sales curve ) can take place. The assumptions made must be explained and justified in a business plan; only then is it possible to understand the assumptions and recognise them as plausible.
Possible arguments for the course of a sales curve:
- In the sales curve, the variables: Customer and product at time X the act of purchase. It is therefore necessary to determine how many customers buy how many products at time X.
- Basically, a separate sales curve and rationale must be developed for each product and service. In reality, each individual product has its own product life cycle.
- In the sales forecast it can be helpful to group goods and products into groups or specific units. The grouping should be justified and explained in the service description.
- There is a basic assumption to be made about the quantity of sales, defined by the type of product and the manner of service. Examples: Number of drinks in a restaurant per hour. Number of counselling cases in a month. Sales per customer in an hour, in a month, in a year. The basic assumptions can be based on industry comparisons.
- sales volume based on the capacities of the company. There are various dependencies here: More than the existing capacity cannot be sold. If a restaurant has 10 seats, at time X only these can be occupied. On the other hand, the capacity is not the same as the actual sales volume. The 10 seats can also simply stand empty if no customers come.
- Seasonal fluctuations throughout the year must be taken into account and planned for. Ice cream sales will decrease in winter and increase in summer.
- Structural and cyclical fluctuations are to be planned for in the course of the year. The energy debate in Germany has a positive impact on business around "energy", increasing sales are to be expected. The rising oil price has "negative" effects on the purchasing behaviour of oil products. If prices rise, sales will fall.
- Sales depend on investments in equipment, machinery and devices. Investments in machinery and also personnel are prerequisites for generating growth in a company.
The course of the sales or turnover curve shall be justified. The assumptions on which it is based must be explained. Why is the sales curve "linear"? Why does it rise and fall in the course of the year? Why does the sales volume increase by X percent in the second and third year? Why are there jumps in sales at certain points in time?
The sales curve can be based on considerations from series of figures over time.
|
|
|
Jan 04 |
Feb 04 |
Mar 04 |
Apr 04 |
May 04 |
Jun 04 |
Jul 04 |
Aug 04 |
Sep 04 |
Oct 04 |
Nov 04 |
Dec 04 |
Total p.a. |
|
Time series |
A |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
78 |
|
Time series |
B |
2 |
4 |
8 |
16 |
32 |
64 |
128 |
256 |
512 |
1024 |
2048 |
4096 |
8190 |
|
Time series |
C |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
12 |
|
Time series |
D |
1 |
2 |
4 |
8 |
16 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
64 |
64 |
319 |
|
Time series |
E |
0 |
1 |
4 |
6 |
3 |
6 |
8 |
2 |
3 |
6 |
8 |
12 |
59 |
|
Time series |
F |
3 |
3 |
3 |
32 |
40 |
30 |
35 |
30 |
30 |
35 |
50 |
120 |
411 |
|
Time series |
G |
12 |
12 |
12 |
60 |
80 |
80 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
12 |
12 |
2 |
372 |
|
Time series |
H |
10 |
10 |
50 |
50 |
50 |
35 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
50 |
50 |
10 |
345 |
|
Time series |
I |
12 |
10 |
8 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
72 |
Table 7: Sales curve